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Weekly economic review & outlook
A blowout jobs report for November

DEC. 09, 2019

You Need to Know

Week in review

Strong job increases for November

The economy added 266,000 jobs (plus upward revisions to prior months) while the unemployment rate fell to the lowest level in 50 years at 3.5 percent.

Business surveys weaken again

The ISM surveys for services and manufacturing each dropped in November as production and new orders continued to decline.

Week Ahead

Forecasts

Modest gains in inflation expected for November

CPI and core inflation are both expected to grow by 0.2 percent in November. With 0.2 percent growth, year-over-year CPI inflation would rise to 2 percent.

Strong growth in retail sales expected after a jump in auto sales

Retail sales are expected to increase by 0.6 percent, boosted by a jump in auto sales, while excluding autos we project a gain of 0.3 percent.

Payroll gains far surpassed consensus expectations with an increase of 266,000 for November and upward revisions totaling 41,000 for the prior two months. Even accounting for the return of striking auto workers, which pushed up manufacturing by 54,000 jobs, November’s hiring was resoundingly strong. With a three-month average of 205,000 for job gains, concerns about possible weakness in the U.S. job market should be put to rest, at least for now.

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