Weekly economic review & outlook
Another Fed cut in October, but a pause was signaled
NOV. 04, 2019
You Need to Know
Week in review
Lower rates but don’t expect more this year
The FOMC cut interest rates again in October while signaling a pause for policy moves unless inflation picks up or growth slows.
Job gains better than expected for October
Despite reductions for the GM strike and Census workers, the economy still added 128,000 jobs for October with significant upward revisions to previous months.
ISM nonmanufacturing expected to slip again, but still indicating expansion
The ISM nonmanufacturing index is projected to drop slightly, but remain in expansion territory.
Trade deficit expected to shrink
Based on the advanced estimate for trade in goods, the overall trade deficit is expected to decline for October.
The Fed lowered interest rates again in October, but that will likely be the last move on rates for a while. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC – the Fed’s policy making arm) cut rates by 25 basis points following its October meeting to bring the federal funds rate down to a 1.50-1.75 percent range. With a total of three “insurance” cuts this year, the current easing cycle is now in line with previous periods of mid-cycle easing during the 1990s. The FOMC statement again cited concerns about slower global growth and below-goal inflation as reasons for adding more stimulus to the economy.