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Cycle Watch | August 2022: Recession tug-of-war

August 16, 2022
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A tug-of-war is playing out in the economy. On one side, there’s record-high inflation and the Federal Reserve’s commitment to contain it. On the other is the fear of a recession. What’s pulling at markets is an uncertain outlook after GDP fell for a second straight quarter this year. Yet other indicators like historic lows in unemployment contrast sharply with previous recessions. Whether or not a recession occurs, they are a normal part of every business cycle.


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