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Cycle Watch: January 2021 – Stimulus returns

JAN. 12, 2021

The pandemic relief bill signed by President Trump at the end of December is set to boost economic activity in 2021, especially early in the year, and help the large number of workers still unemployed due to COVID-19 shutdowns. Prior to its passage, risks of a negative quarter of GDP growth for Q1 were rising due to the recent jump in new infections and additional rounds of government restrictions. Now with the renewed stimulus program in place, we estimate growth in 2021 should accelerate to around 5.0% for the year, with Q1 growth up to an annual rate of 2.5%. That would be fastest pace of annual growth since 1984.

Read more in this month’s Cycle Watch.

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