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Cycle Watch: November 2020 – Recovery downshift

November 10, 2020

Gross Domestic Product growth for Q3 showed a record surge, but the economic recovery has slowed recently with dips in job gains and consumer spending (although still historically strong). The business sector continues to show momentum and could help maintain above-trend growth into 2021, as long as the pandemic spread can be kept at bay. Policy support for the recovery has become more mixed in recent months. While the Fed has promised to maintain a highly accommodative monetary policy for some time, further fiscal stimulus is on hold until after the November elections. The key for a strong recovery remains widespread vaccine availability, which hopefully will occur in the first half of 2021.

Read more in this month’s Cycle Watch.

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