Cycle Watch August 2021: Expansion mode
In the 2nd Quarter, the level of real GDP exceeded its pre-COVID peak of Q4 2019, bringing an end to the recovery and a start to the expansion. While the pace of growth likely peaked this past quarter, the economy still has plenty of momentum that should carry it into 2022. Equity markets continued to hit fresh records in July despite the rebound in COVID-19 cases. While the current fundamental backdrop is strong, earnings growth has likely peaked and fiscal and monetary policy are becoming less of a tailwind.
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