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Weekly economic review & outlook
Consumer activity slowly climbing from the bottom

JUN. 01, 2020

You Need to Know

Week in review

Signs of economic stabilization in May

High-frequency data from May show that consumers are participating in the economy again, albeit at much lower levels than in the pre-COVID period.

Collapsing consumer spending suggests at least a 40 percent annualized drop in 2020Q2 real GDP

The core PCE price index dropped by 0.4 percent, lowering annual core inflation to the weakest pace in nine years.

Week Ahead

Forecasts

Modest improvement expected for ISM indexes

Recent data from regional Federal Reserve Bank surveys suggest that the ISM surveys may show some modest improvement.

Another dismal employment report

Nonfarm payrolls are expected to decline by nearly 10 million for May, with the unemployment rate jumping to around 20 percent – but this may be worst data for this downturn.

The reopening of many state and local economies is being reflected in improved high-frequency data from May. While economic activity measures are starting from unprecedented lows, the slow rebuild of commercial activity began in May and should lead to better economic readings in the months ahead.

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