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Cycle Watch – July 2020

JUL. 10, 2020

While the COVID-19 recession officially started in February, there were a number of signs that the economy began to turn the corner in May, notably a surprising jump in job growth and a record surge in retail sales. Optimism is building that the economy may likely expand solidly in the second half of 2020 as consumer and business activity reboots and grows at an above-trend rate at least into next year. A sharp rebound in growth could mean the COVID-19 recession may be the shortest downturn in U.S. history. Still, given the depth of the decline, a full recovery to pre-COVID levels for important indicators such as real GDP and employment is expected to take several years.

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