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Cycle Watch – June 2020

JUN. 15, 2020

Economic data from April were abysmal, but that month will likely be the bottom for the current downturn. Indicators show a modest uptick in activity in May as many state and local economies reopened, although slowly and not uniformly. While optimism for a recovery is building, the path forward is shrouded by uncertainty around the coronavirus. On the upside, record monetary and fiscal stimulus should help the economy rebound later this year, with a potentially rapid pace of growth expected for 2021 when a vaccine is more likely. There remains a reasonable chance of a renewed outbreak, which could rekindle infection fears and government stay-at-home mandates, and extend the downturn into next year.

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