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Economic Commentary

Booming jobs report caps a positive week of economic data

August 08, 2022
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Last week’s economic data were mostly positive. Jobs grew by far more than expected for July — finally pushing payrolls past the pre-Covid peak — and the unemployment rate fell to 3.5 percent, matching the pre-Covid trough. Additionally, the ISM surveys signaled growth in manufacturing and services (with growth in services surprisingly accelerating) and provided evidence of both healing supply chains and slowing input price growth. In total, the data show little evidence that the economy is in recession today and increase the odds of the Fed moving forward with plans to institute another large interest rate hike next month.

What we learned last week: (pg. 1)

  • Nonfarm payrolls jump for July
  • ISMs suggest (slower) growth for manufacturing and services

What we’re watching this week: (pg. 2)

  • Top-line inflation rate moderates
  • Input price gains fall significantly
  • An uptick in consumer sentiment

View our informative commentary on the economy and financial markets – and find out what we’re watching for the week ahead:

View this week's economic review & outlook