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Weekly economic review & outlook
Continued solid job gains

NOV. 09, 2020

You Need to Know

Week in review

Labor market takes more steps forward

Job gains remained solid during October while the unemployment rate posted another significant decline as conditions improve despite a rise in the labor force participation rate.

Manufacturing showing strong expansion

The ISM manufacturing index rose sharply in October, climbing to the highest level since 2018 as order activity and production remained strong.

Week Ahead

Forecasts

Modest growth expected for the CPI

Declining fuel prices and an economy that continues to operate well below its potential should lead to a second straight month of modest inflation.

Consumer sentiment likely to fall

Amid election uncertainty and rising new coronavirus infection rates, we look for consumer sentiment to take a step back from its prior reading.

Rehiring by businesses remained strong into October with total nonfarm payroll gains of 638,000 — a smaller drop from September’s increase than most market analysts had expected. The increase was even stronger for the private sector, with 906,000 jobs added, as the drop off of temporary Census workers dragged down federal government employment. Sectors still recovering from the COVID lockdowns, including leisure and hospitality and retail, led the job growth last month as many companies continue to bring back previously furloughed workers. In total, the economy has gained more than 12 million jobs since May but remains down about 10 million total workers compared with the pre-COVID peak in February.

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