Core retail sales up solidly, but housing market slows further

Last week’s economic data were mixed. Retail sales growth was flat due in large part to falling gasoline and car prices; the retail sales control group suggests that consumers are not yet pulling back on spending. On the other hand, the housing market continued to cool — both existing home sales and housing starts fell — and recession indicators are drawing ever closer to signaling that a recession is likely in 2023.

What we learned last week: (pg. 1)

• Existing home sales have fallen dramatically this year
• 12-month growth in the LEI has fallen to zero

What we’re watching this week: (pg. 2)

• Durable goods orders should moderate
• Price changes from the broad personal consumption price index (PCE) are projected to have moderated in July

Healthy compensation gains are expected to fuel July’s steady gain in personal income

View our informative commentary on the economy and financial markets – and find out what we’re watching for the week ahead: