Can the Fed slow inflation without a recession?
Don’t be misled by negative first quarter economic growth. Core spending and the job market are solid.
Monthly housing indicators released last week were mostly to the downside. Homebuilder sentiment waned, existing home sales declined, and single-family housing starts and building permits slowed (but starts and permits were both up for multifamily dwellings). There were some positives from the housing data, plus initial jobless claims remained low while the index of leading economic indicators (LEI) moved higher (but the 12-month growth rate slowed).