November Monthly Dashboard: Inflation moves higher, expansion reaccelerating

Monthly Review (Page 2)

Much of the economic data improved for October even as widespread supply chain/transportation disruptions and labor shortages persisted. Job gains were strong with unemployment falling again despite a lack of qualified workers for the near record level of job openings. Business surveys remained elevated, even as companies struggle to keep up with burgeoning consumer demand. Rapid inflation remains a concern but continues to be caused mostly by factors that should subside over the next year as supply chains and transport networks heal.

Outlook (Page 3)

Inflation is on track to reach its highest levels since the early 1980s in coming months as stressed supply chains and strong consumer demand push up costs for food, energy, and many other goods. Much of this price pressure should ease over the next year, however, as the supply system resets and consumers shift back to service expenditures as society normalizes. Still, there remains a risk of persistently faster inflation which could force the Fed’s hand on interest rate hikes, perhaps slowing the expansion sooner and more sharply than currently expected.

Go deeper with the full November dashboard linked below.