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Economic Commentary

Near-term recession concerns are overdone

May 23, 2022
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The financial markets have been showing significant concern about a growth slowdown, and possible recession, with equities selling off and prices of Treasury notes climbing (pushing rates down) last week. The underlying data, however, tell a somewhat different story. Retail sales continued to grow solidly, housing data weakened but remain strong overall, and regional Fed manufacturing surveys slid but don’t suggest a broad slowdown.

What we learned last week: (pg. 1)

  • Existing home sales continue to slip
  • Philly Fed new orders index still shows solid growth

What we’re watching this week: (pg. 2)

  • Another decline expected for new home sale
  • Durable goods orders likely to continue upward trend
  • Consumer spending expected to be robust as consumer activity remains solid

Podcast: How is inflation impacting the consumer? (18 min)

Nationwide’s Chief Economist David Berson and Deputy Chief Economist Bryan Jordan take a closer look at the recent Retail Sales and Industrial Production reports.

  • How has inflation impacted overall sentiment?
  • Does the consumer still have the wherewithal to spend?
  • And what’s the outlook for the months ahead?

Listen here.

View our informative commentary on the economy and financial markets – and find out what we’re watching for the week ahead:

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