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Weekly economic review & outlook
Vaccine news lifts markets and the outlook

NOV. 16, 2020

You Need to Know

Week in review

Equity markets ride positive vaccine news to record highs

Optimism surrounding vaccine effectiveness, and perhaps mixed government, lifted equity markets despite concerns with a jump in new infections.

No consumer inflation for October

The overall consumer price index (CPI) and its core reading were both flat during October as the post-lockdown price surge has diminished.

Week Ahead

Forecasts

Strong growth expected for retail sales

Another month of strong job gains and improved consumer confidence likely contributed to strong, albeit slowing, retail sales growth.

Small decline projected for existing home sales

After four consecutive months of strong sales gains, existing home sales likely took a bit of a breather for October, although demand fundamentals remain positive.

The announcement last week from Pfifzer and this morning from Moderna on likely 90+ percent efficacy rates for COVID-19 vaccines have been sending positive shockwaves through financial markets. The high estimated efficacy rates of these or other vaccines could be key to getting to herd immunity sooner, with the potential of an earlier return to normalcy for the economy. Separately, Eli Lilly received emergency FDA approval for an antibody treatment for virus infections, which could help to reduce the number of severe cases and deaths.

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