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Weekly economic review & outlook
Geopolitical uncertainty abundant

SEP. 30, 2019

You Need to Know

Week in review

Rising geopolitical risks add to uncertainty

October could be an uncertain period for the economy and financial markets with geopolitical risks rising both in the U.S. and abroad.

More strong data from housing

New home sales surged for August and the trend has been pointed upward all year, while a continued uptrend in pending sales suggests stronger existing sales activity as well.

Week Ahead

Forecasts

Payroll gains should edge higher for September

The pace of hiring should remain solid with payrolls up by 165,000 and a downtick in the unemployment rate to 3.6 percent.

Manufacturing better, but still contracting

While the ISM manufacturing index may tick higher for September, it is also likely to show a further modest contraction overall for September.

The geopolitical environment has been quite uncertain this year, helping to hold back economic activity. The choppy escalation of trade disputes between the U.S and China has hung over the business sector and helped to decelerate global growth. The Fed, which came into the year expecting further rate hikes, has reversed course with two rate cuts (and more likely on the way) in response to building risks for the economy, while the yield curve has been partially inverted since May – at a minimum suggesting slower growth ahead, if not recession.

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