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January Economic Review: Accommodative monetary policy and less geopolitical risk suggest continued growth ahead – but Iran poses a new risk

January 14, 2020

Economic Review: No misery here (Page 3)

Modest inflation and a still solid job market have created a benign environment for consumers. The misery index has fallen substantially since its 1980 highs and today it is well below average. But manufacturing remains in a funk and the Iranian crisis may offset other reductions in geopolitical risk.

Financial Markets Review: A strong stock market rally to end the year (Page 4)

Global equity markets finished 2019 on a strong note. There was hardly an asset class that didn’t move higher for the year with most turning in double-digit returns. Despite this outsized performance, the odds do not favor a broad downturn in the year ahead.

The Outlook: Risks and opportunities in 2020 (Page 5)

The year ahead presents reason for both optimism and caution. While the risks that pushed the Fed to cut benchmark interest rates three times in 2019 have yet to completely dissipate, they did downshift enough in the latter stages of the year to suggest that the expansion is still not close to an end.

Go deeper with the full January report linked below.