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Weekly economic review & outlook
More mixed news on the economy

You Need to Know

Week in review

Modest payroll gains but a 50-year low in unemployment

The economy added only 136,000 jobs in September, although prior months were revised higher – with the unemployment rate falling to an expansion low.

Growth slipping for the business sector

The ISM manufacturing index dipped deeper into contraction while the service sector survey pulled back sharply in September – although still showing expansion.

Week Ahead

Forecasts

Consumer inflation should rise despite falling gasoline

The consumer price index is expected to rise by 0.1 percent in September with the core up by 0.2 percent.

But higher crude oil should lift producer prices a bit

The producer price index is likely to climb in September, but the 12-month change should remain relatively tepid.

Signs of a bifurcated economy continued last week, with business surveys lower, mixed news on the job market, and continued strength from consumers. Overall economic growth appears to be slowing, with most estimates for real GDP growth over the second half of the year now below 2.0 percent. Even so, recent data do not suggest that the economy has slipped into a recession – or that it is likely to in the near-term.

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