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November Economic Review: Growth slowing to trend, but Fed easing helps

NOV. 12, 2019

Economic Review: Economic Review: A move back to trend growth (Page 3)

Data from October and early November point to an economy that is stronger than expected by many analysts (albeit slowing), but in line with what members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) thought was enough to signal that further easing is not imminent.

Financial Markets Review: Financial Markets Review: Stock indexes up along with interest rates (despite Fed easing) (Page 4)

Risk assets responded positively to geopolitical developments (mostly from the trade war) in October. The S&P 500 index reached an all-time high, surpassing the previous record set in July, while the U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield reached a level of 1.85 percent (a three-month high) before settling around 1.70 to end the month (and then jumping to over 1.90 percent as this report was being written).

The Outlook: The Outlook: A near-term downturn, should one occur, would likely be mild (Page 5)

While the economy remains in a clear state of expansion, the risks going forward continue to be elevated. If the economy were to lapse into a downturn at some point in the foreseeable future, the fundamentals suggest that the contraction would be relatively mild.

Go deeper with the full November report linked below.