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Weekly economic review & outlook
Recovery already? More strong data headed by jobs

JUL. 06, 2020

You Need to Know

Week in review

Another record jump in payrolls during June with a big drop in unemployment

There were 4.8 million job gains during June as rehiring accelerated in many sectors while the unemployment rate fell to a still high 11.1 percent.

Manufacturing sector surges back into expansion during June

The ISM manufacturing index climbed sharply on a spike in new orders and total production – rising to the highest level in more than a year.

Week Ahead

Forecasts

Service sector survey expected to climb again

The ISM nonmanufacturing index should recover further in June from its record low from April, moving modestly into expansion territory.

Input prices likely up for June, but still weak from a trend perspective

The producer price index should climb in June with oil prices higher, but the trend increase for input prices should remain near zero.

The labor market continued to rapidly heal from the COVID-19 recession, adding a record 4.8 million jobs for June and far surpassing consensus expectations. While total payroll employment is still down by 14.7 million from the February peak, the gains during the last two months have offset about a third of the March and April declines. Sectors that were hit hardest by the lockdown again led rehiring with leisure and hospitality up by more than two million and retail trade adding 740,000 workers during June.

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