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September Economic Review: Job strength fueling wages and growth

SEP. 18, 2018

Economic Review: Business/consumer surveys soar; job gains rebound

The ISM and NFIB surveys set new highs (or were close), while consumer confidence soared. Not surprisingly, job growth remained solid with a rebound in August — and the fastest wage gains in the expansion.

Financial Markets Review: Emerging market problems are emerging

A number of emerging markets are experiencing increasing economic difficulty, causing their currencies to plummet. The risks of a 1997-98 EM-type crisis are rising. Still, U.S. equity prices have climbed to or near all-time highs.

The Outlook: A soft landing? Probably not

In the past, the Fed has tightened to keep inflation from accelerating, but the resulting inversion of the yield curve has helped cause a downturn. Only rarely has the Fed been in a position to tighten, stabilize inflation, and create a soft landing. The odds don’t favor that happening this time.

Go deeper with the full September report linked below.