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September Economic Review: Positive fundamentals prolong record-setting expansion, for now

SEP. 17, 2019

Economic Review: Divergence (Page 3)

The divergence between the manufacturing and consumer sectors was readily apparent in August. The trade war is hitting the manufacturing sector, with the ISM survey falling below its breakeven level, while still solid fundamentals are boosting consumer spending and keeping the services side of the economy growing.

Financial Markets Review: It was a risk-off month (Page 4)

August was a poor month for risk assets, as broad stock market indexes and bond yields both fell. Despite what was a clear risk-off move during August, reacting to rising trade and geopolitical risks, many of these same risk assets are still up solidly on a year-to-date basis.

The Outlook: Despite risks, recession still not close at hand (Page 5)

Geopolitical headwinds, led by the trade war between the U.S. and China, are contributing to a sharp drop in expectations while several leading indicators are suggesting that risks are rising. There is still little reason, however, to expect anything approaching a downturn to take hold in the near-term.

Go deeper with the full September report linked below.