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Weekly economic review & outlook
Virus concerns climb while the economic data improve

JUN. 29, 2020

You Need to Know

Week in review

Surge in infections threatens the trajectory of the recovery

A new peak for daily cases of COVID-19 has prompted fears of renewed government restrictions, a risk for near-term growth.

New home sales surge as homebuyer demand rises post-lockdown

While lagging existing home sales fell sharply for May, new home sales spiked – as demand was spurred by record low mortgage rates.

Week Ahead

Forecasts

Motor vehicle sales should continue to climb

As miles driven and employment continue their post-shutdown recovery, so should the pace of vehicle sales.

Another massive gain expected for nonfarm payrolls

After May’s surprisingly positive employment report, the continued reopening of state and local economies should further improve the employment picture in June.

Data from May continue to show a solid rebound in economic activity coming out of the economic lockdown. Personal consumption expenditures rose by a record 8.2 percent for the month as pent-up demand, a surge in job gains, and the federal stimulus boost to household incomes spurred spending. Mobility measures show that consumers are returning to more normal summer routines, while the Markit business surveys improved greatly for June as business operations recover. Despite these positive trends, the medical outlook has darkened in recent weeks. A surge in new virus infections and hospitalizations across the Sunbelt (focused on the populous states of Florida, Texas, Arizona, and California) has increased the odds of renewed state/local government restrictions.

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