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Weekly economic review & outlook
Weaker signs from hiring and manufacturing

SEP. 09, 2019

You Need to Know

Week in review

Job gains weaker for August

Payroll growth slowed to 130,000 for August, extending the cooling of the job market. Wage gains were strong, indicative of tight labor conditions.

Trade woes push manufacturing into contraction

The ISM manufacturing index fell into contraction territory for August as trade/tariff concerns continue to weigh on the sector.

Week Ahead

Forecasts

Lower gasoline prices to hold back inflation

The consumer price index is expected to rise by only 0.1 percent for August due to lower energy prices. The core CPI should increase by 0.2 percent.

Retail sales should be solid again for August

Retail spending is expected to be solid for August – up by 0.6 percent to extend the improved stretch of consumer activity.

The job market continues to slowly cool as the economy added only 130,000 to payrolls for August. Moreover, private sector employment grew by less than 100,000 as there was a one-time jump in federal government hiring for next year’s decennial Census. The three-month average for private payroll growth the past two months has been the weakest since 2012. Note, however, that the initial reading for August payrolls is often revised higher, so this softer view may go away in another month or two.

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