Nationwide Economics Nationwide Economics

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• How Has the Pandemic Impacted Inflation
• Consumer activity slows to close 2022: Weekly Economic Review & Outlook
• Cooler inflation numbers are encouraging: Weekly Economic Review & Outlook
• Labor demand remains unbent by higher rates: Weekly Economic Review & Outlook
• Risk assets turn higher, but risks remain sizeable
• Podcast: Interview with NMI’s author, Bryan Jordan
• Slower momentum entering the new year: Weekly Economic Review & Outlook
• Podcast: 2023 Economic Outlook
• Stronger end to 2022 as consumers continue to drive economic growth
• The Fed downshifts, remains hawkish: Weekly Economic Review & Outlook
• Podcast: FOMC strikes a hawkish tone
• Growth accelerates, but likely to be short-lived
• Service sector still shows solid growth: Weekly Economic Review & Outlook
• Podcast: Job and wage growth stronger than expected
• Continued growth even as clouds build over the outlook for 2023
• Consumer resiliency shines through: Weekly Economic Review & Outlook
• Podcast: Holiday Shopping Outlook
• Inflation and rising rates are squeezing consumers
• An unexpected inflation reprieve: Weekly Economic Review & Outlook
• Another supersized rate hike from the Fed: Weekly Economic Review & Outlook
• Podcast: The Fed raised rates again. How many more hikes could be on the way?
• Nationwide Market Insights Podcast: Q3 GDP: Recession fears subside, for now
• More treats than tricks in third quarter GDP: Weekly Economic Review & Outlook
• Further rate increases should set the stage for a recession within the next year.
• Expectations point to further declines in home sales ahead
• Nationwide Market Insights Podcast: Risk factors for economic growth, part 2
• Will further Fed rate hikes lead to a recession?
• How Financial Professionals can Help Clients Save for College: 529 Plans
• Core inflation rises to new peak and retail sales have flatlined
• Why Clients Need a Financial Plan for College
• Nationwide Market Insights Podcast: Risk factors for economic growth, part 1
• Continued momentum for the labor market
• Asset prices remain under pressure as Fed stays aggressive
• High inflation weighing on consumer activity
• Fed continues its aggressive inflation fight
• The Fed announced a third consecutive 75 basis point rate increase as inflation trends remains hot.
• The Fed stays aggressive: Daily Insight from Nationwide Economics
• Markets retest lows as growth concerns rise
• Bad inflation print despite lower gas prices
• Housing has weakened, but the Fed is unlikely to alter its rate tightening path
• Mixed signals on service sector growth
• The labor market is still extremely tight and manufacturing continues to expand
• Housing market continues to cool: Nationwide Market Insights Podcast
• New home sales tumble, but core inflation slowly retreating
• August Monthly Dashboard: Strong job growth and slower inflation boost the near-term outlook, but clouds remain for 2023
• Core retail sales up solidly, but housing market slows further
• A second consecutive quarter of real GDP declines, while job growth accelerates
• Broadly encouraging price data
• Nationwide Market Insights Podcast: Job gains provide more evidence that we’re not in a recession now
• Booming jobs report caps a positive week of economic data
• A second consecutive drop in real GDP — recession or not?
• Nationwide Market Insights Podcast: FOMC moves aggressively (again), hoping to slow inflation. Will it work?
• Existing home sales have fallen significantly this year
• How does La Nina impact the economy?
• Inflation continues to gather steam
• Nationwide Market Insights Podcast: Are we in a recession now?
• The labor market shows resilience with strong job growth
• Nationwide Market Insights Podcast: Quarterly Report for Q3 2022
• Weaker data add to recession fears
• Rapid inflation threatens to derail the expansion as the Fed hikes sharply again
• Nationwide Market Insights Podcast: A rough start to 2022 (20 min)
• Monthly Review: Rising inflation, stagflation, soft landing, or recession ahead?
• Consumers are getting scorched by hot inflation
• How is inflation impacting the consumer? (Podcast): Nationwide Market Insights
• Housing market may have peaked
• Mixed signals from economic data
• Nationwide Market Insights Podcast: Can the Fed achieve a soft landing?
• March Monthly Dashboard: Russian invasion of Ukraine and the start of Fed tightening cloud the outlook
• Podcast: Will there be a post-Omicron economic boost? (17 min)
• The Fed starts a tightening campaign
• Podcast: The Fed begins to tighten: Prelude to a recession? (19 min)
• Podcast: Will inflation go higher and when could conditions improve (16 min)
• Strong employment report cements Fed move
• Podcast: Booming job growth reflects considerable momentum (14 min)
• Powell injects a note of caution
• February Monthly Dashboard: Growth and rapid inflation should prompt more restrictive Fed policy
• Podcast: Inflation Is Still Soaring (15 min)
• November Monthly Dashboard: Inflation moves higher, expansion reaccelerating
• More mixed housing data imply continued supply constraints
• Podcast: October 2021 Housing Market Update
• Inflation remains high, but it may be stabilizing
• Expansion hits a bump in the road as supply constraints linger
• September employment report podcast
• Jobs report not as bad as the headline
• Nationwide Market Insights: Quarterly Report, Q4 2021
• Spending fundamentals fading a bit
• Nationwide Market Insights: Interest Rates
• Fed tapering is coming soon; tightening later
• September Monthly Dashboard: Economic growth decelerates in the face of Delta and supply headwinds
• Nationwide Market Insights: September Fed Meeting
• Modestly better economic data
• September Economic Review: Economic growth continues but slowed by supply constraints/Delta variant
• Policy changes do not come easily
• Signs of Delta on both demand and supply
• Solid, but modestly slowing, economic data
• Delta variant and supply chain headwinds, but still solid forward momentum
• Mostly weaker economic data
• Recovery ends and expansion begins
• Inflation moderates but remains above-trend
• Summer heats up for job gains
• Solid data, but below expectations
• Strong sellers’ market for housing continues
• The recovery has ended and the expansion begun
• Inflation surges again but softer gains likely ahead
• Post-pandemic boom continues, but held back by supply-chain problems
• Service sector starving for workers
• Hiring breaks out to the upside
• The housing market cooled off this spring
• Supply-side constraints are having an impact
• Economy is strong, despite supply issues
• Inflation spike likely at its peak
• Hiring accelerates but labor supply still a concern
• Strong demand but supply constraints across the economy
• Strong economic growth to continue
• Jobless claims are plummeting
• Volatility endemic to high-flying markets
• Perceptions of job availability soar
• Well-being disparities likely to influence Fed policy
• Lack of supply and rising costs constraining housing
• More signs of a robust labor market
• Fed inches toward tapering
• China’s population growth continues to slow
• The economic boom is here
• How well do consumers anticipate inflation?
• Inflation spikes but underlying trend is more stable
• Jobless claims fall again
• Inflation takes off
• Second year dynamics may be taking hold
• Fed flags financial stability risks
• April job gains fall far short of expectations
• Early cycle productivity boom underway
• Bank lending standards continue to ease
• Commercial real estate faces structural risks
• Supply chain dislocations evident throughout ISM report
• Economic growth spurts to start 2021
• Booming recovery still gaining momentum
• Fed stays the course
• Confidence shoots higher
• Grain prices continue to soar
• Housing market thaws from February’s freeze
• Ready or not, here comes the boom
• Stocks retreat on capital gains plan
• A surprisingly hawkish BoC meeting
• P&G announces price hikes
• Wage growth to soften
• A booming month for consumer spending
• Another stunning retail sales report
• Bank earnings reflect brimming optimism
• Inflation remains muted
• April Economic Review: The boom is beginning
• First quarter earnings set to soar
• The service sector rebound takes off
• Rent prices reflect large-scale migration
• Trade balance reflects diverging recoveries
• More job gains to come
• More signs of normalcy in society
• March job gains were hot, hot, hot
• Infrastructure plan diminishes both headwinds and tailwinds
• A head-fake first quarter?
• Confidence spikes higher
• Leverage is cyclical
• Severe winter weather chills the housing market
• March Monthly Dashboard: Signs of post-pandemic economic acceleration
• GDP closes in on a full recovery
• A booming factory sector, even in Europe
• Bull run off to a robust start
• Rates likely a very modest drag on housing
• Substantial weather drag for February activity
• March Economic Review: The economy springs forward as vaccinations expand and cases, restrictions continue to fall
• Inflation still modest for now
• Net worth jumps again
• Core inflation remains muted
• Labor shortages growing acute
• Another massive stimulus bill nears passage
• Capex remains on a solid path
• Beige Book hints at coming pickup in activity
• NFT boom another sign of ample liquidity
• Manufacturing remains robust even as price pressures intensify
• Expectations of growth/inflation send longer-term interest rates higher
• February Monthly Dashboard: Stimulus fuels economic growth acceleration
• Claims fall sharply
• Powell maintains a dovish stance
• Confidence rises again
• Rising Treasury yields far from a red flag
• Stimulus fuels a spending surge
• Claims back on the climb
• Retail sales boom
• Another bitcoin milestone
• February Economic Review: A slower start to 2021, but better days are ahead
• Inflation up, driven by rising energy prices
• Jobless claims move lower again
• Core inflation remains tame
• Rising quits rate another sign of labor market confidence
• Negative rates not imminent, but possible longer-term
• Employment data not as strong as hoped
• Visibility picking up
• Tailwinds for the consumer continue to build
• CBO forecasts ongoing output gap
• Elevated ISM points to a post-pandemic boom
• Solid overall economic growth to close 2020
• January Monthly Dashboard: The economic soft patch will be over soon
• GDP recovery continues
• Fed stays the course
• Consumer confidence moves higher
• Ongoing rally fuels bubble fears
• A housing market surge for 2020
• Soft patch continues, but remains narrowly based
• Meet the new boss, same as the old boss
• Bank optimism growing
• January Economic Review: Rising infections lead to renewed restrictions and slower growth – but we expect improvement soon
• Retail spending slumps to end 2020
• Jobless claims jump
• Core inflation remains muted
• Near-term Risks Still Climbing
• Financials to kick off earnings season
• COVID/lockdowns hit the job market
• Lack of trust is a structural headwind
• No split government after all
• No soft patch in manufacturing
• Stimulus to Limit the Near-Term Downside
• Growth to be boosted by new stimulus
• December Monthly Dashboard: Virus resurgence threatens near-term growth even as vaccines/stimulus lift expectations
• COVID shutdowns hit consumer spending
• Unemployment claims rise again
• Fed adds a word of emphasis
• Stimulus compromise likely to leave out the public sector
• Near-term weakness, but a much stronger 2021
• COVID-19 Surge Weakens Incoming Data
• Jobless Claims Spike
• Correction May Come Sooner Rather than Later
• Job gains slow for November
• Labor market still stressed
• Consumer spending slowing
• November Economic Review: Record economic growth. New infections present risk.
• Vaccine news lifts markets and the outlook
• Continued solid job gains
• A blow out start to the next expansion
• Homes sales soar despite even less supply
• The recovery shifts to a lower gear
• Another spending surge for September
• A blow-out third quarter, but slower growth ahead
• Business sector recovery taking shape
• Slower, but still solid, job growth
• The housing market is hot
• A surge in growth for the third quarter, but slower growth ahead continues
• Spending slowdown for August
• Economic activity is sprinting ahead, but this is more of a marathon
• Inflation warm again in August
• Strong rehiring adds a boost to the recovery
• Housing surges; a new paradigm for the Fed; new infections down
• Momentum is slowing, but the recovery continues
• The housing market is back
• Economic activity is sprinting ahead, but this is more of a marathon
• Inflation surprises to the upside
• The summer of recovery continued in July
• That’s not a knife. That’s a knife!
• Home sales storm back in June
• Better economic data, but rising infection rates increase near-term risks
• Another burst of retail spending
• More evidence that the economic recovery has begun
• Rising new coronavirus infections muddies positive economic data
• Recovery already? More strong data headed by jobs
• Virus concerns climb while the economic data improve
• The COVID-19 recession began in February but did it end in May?
• Post-lockdown spike in spending
• June Economic Review: Green shoots emerge in the darkest economic times
• Fed fully committed to policy accommodation
• Job growth for May shocks to the upside
• Consumer activity slowly climbing from the bottom
• Housing activity takes a COVID plunge
• May Economic Review: The worst month ever for the U.S. economy?
• Retail spending falls through the floor
• Sobering job losses for U.S. workers
• A record breaker
• Growth drops, but the plunge is still ahead
• The economic downturn sharply slows spring homebuying
• April Monthly Dashboard: The next recession has arrived
• Consumer activity takes a virus dive
• April Economic Review: The economy hit a wall in mid-March
• Main Street hurting with the COVID-19 shutdown
• First wave of COVID-19 job losses hits
• And so it begins
• The coming COVID-19 recession
• Another terrible week for financial markets
• March Economic Review: Early year economic momentum about to be hit by the coronavirus – how long and how severe?
• Panic in the Streets (or Panic on the Street)
• The Fed Goes All in to Mitigate Covid-19’s Economic Impact
• Fed cuts rates with little near-term impact
• A blow-out jobs report for February
• Fed reacts to concerns from the coronavirus
• Coronavirus fears set in
• February Monthly Dashboard: Coronavirus is a wildcard for the economy and financial markets
• Housing set up for another solid year
• February Economic Review: The outlook for 2020 is mostly positive, but will the Coronavirus short-circuit the expansion?
• Modest consumer spending continues
• Week in Review: January was another solid month for the labor market
• Stable growth and a steady Fed
• Housing ends 2019 on a hot streak
• January Monthly Dashboard: economic growth trends up heading into 2020 despite trade and geopolitical risks
• Softer end to 2019 for consumer data
• January Economic Review: Accommodative monetary policy and less geopolitical risk suggest continued growth ahead – but Iran poses a new risk
• Job gains set up further growth in 2020
• Strong end to 2019 for equity markets