Nationwide Economics Nationwide Economics

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• How Has the Pandemic Impacted Inflation
• Stronger end to 2022 as consumers continue to drive economic growth
• Podcast: Holiday Shopping Outlook
• Nationwide Market Insights Podcast: Risk factors for economic growth, part 2
• Will further Fed rate hikes lead to a recession?
• How Financial Professionals can Help Clients Save for College: 529 Plans
• Core inflation rises to new peak and retail sales have flatlined
• Why Clients Need a Financial Plan for College
• Rapid inflation threatens to derail the expansion as the Fed hikes sharply again
• Monthly Review: Rising inflation, stagflation, soft landing, or recession ahead?
• Consumers are getting scorched by hot inflation
• March Monthly Dashboard: Russian invasion of Ukraine and the start of Fed tightening cloud the outlook
• Podcast: The Fed begins to tighten: Prelude to a recession? (19 min)
• Podcast: Will inflation go higher and when could conditions improve (16 min)
• Strong employment report cements Fed move
• Podcast: Booming job growth reflects considerable momentum (14 min)
• Powell injects a note of caution
• February Monthly Dashboard: Growth and rapid inflation should prompt more restrictive Fed policy
• Podcast: Inflation Is Still Soaring (15 min)
• November Monthly Dashboard: Inflation moves higher, expansion reaccelerating
• More mixed housing data imply continued supply constraints
• Podcast: October 2021 Housing Market Update
• Inflation remains high, but it may be stabilizing
• Expansion hits a bump in the road as supply constraints linger
• September employment report podcast
• Jobs report not as bad as the headline
• Nationwide Market Insights: Quarterly Report, Q4 2021
• Spending fundamentals fading a bit
• Nationwide Market Insights: Interest Rates
• Fed tapering is coming soon; tightening later
• September Monthly Dashboard: Economic growth decelerates in the face of Delta and supply headwinds
• Nationwide Market Insights: September Fed Meeting
• Modestly better economic data
• September Economic Review: Economic growth continues but slowed by supply constraints/Delta variant
• Policy changes do not come easily
• Signs of Delta on both demand and supply
• Solid, but modestly slowing, economic data
• Delta variant and supply chain headwinds, but still solid forward momentum
• Mostly weaker economic data
• Inflation moderates but remains above-trend
• Summer heats up for job gains
• Solid data, but below expectations
• Strong sellers’ market for housing continues
• The recovery has ended and the expansion begun
• Inflation surges again but softer gains likely ahead
• Post-pandemic boom continues, but held back by supply-chain problems
• Service sector starving for workers
• Hiring breaks out to the upside
• The housing market cooled off this spring
• Supply-side constraints are having an impact
• Economy is strong, despite supply issues
• Inflation spike likely at its peak
• Hiring accelerates but labor supply still a concern
• Strong demand but supply constraints across the economy
• Strong economic growth to continue
• Jobless claims are plummeting
• Volatility endemic to high-flying markets
• Perceptions of job availability soar
• Well-being disparities likely to influence Fed policy
• Lack of supply and rising costs constraining housing
• More signs of a robust labor market
• Fed inches toward tapering
• China’s population growth continues to slow
• The economic boom is here
• How well do consumers anticipate inflation?
• Inflation spikes but underlying trend is more stable
• Jobless claims fall again
• Inflation takes off
• Second year dynamics may be taking hold
• Fed flags financial stability risks
• April job gains fall far short of expectations
• Early cycle productivity boom underway
• Bank lending standards continue to ease
• Commercial real estate faces structural risks
• Supply chain dislocations evident throughout ISM report
• Economic growth spurts to start 2021
• Booming recovery still gaining momentum
• Fed stays the course
• Confidence shoots higher
• Grain prices continue to soar
• Housing market thaws from February’s freeze
• Ready or not, here comes the boom
• Stocks retreat on capital gains plan
• A surprisingly hawkish BoC meeting
• P&G announces price hikes
• Wage growth to soften
• A booming month for consumer spending
• Another stunning retail sales report
• Bank earnings reflect brimming optimism
• Inflation remains muted
• April Economic Review: The boom is beginning
• First quarter earnings set to soar
• The service sector rebound takes off
• Rent prices reflect large-scale migration
• Trade balance reflects diverging recoveries
• More job gains to come
• More signs of normalcy in society
• March job gains were hot, hot, hot
• Infrastructure plan diminishes both headwinds and tailwinds
• A head-fake first quarter?
• Confidence spikes higher
• Leverage is cyclical
• Severe winter weather chills the housing market
• March Monthly Dashboard: Signs of post-pandemic economic acceleration
• GDP closes in on a full recovery
• A booming factory sector, even in Europe
• Bull run off to a robust start
• Rates likely a very modest drag on housing
• Substantial weather drag for February activity
• March Economic Review: The economy springs forward as vaccinations expand and cases, restrictions continue to fall
• Inflation still modest for now
• Net worth jumps again
• Core inflation remains muted
• Labor shortages growing acute
• Another massive stimulus bill nears passage
• Capex remains on a solid path
• Beige Book hints at coming pickup in activity
• NFT boom another sign of ample liquidity
• Manufacturing remains robust even as price pressures intensify
• Expectations of growth/inflation send longer-term interest rates higher
• February Monthly Dashboard: Stimulus fuels economic growth acceleration
• Claims fall sharply
• Powell maintains a dovish stance
• Confidence rises again
• Rising Treasury yields far from a red flag
• Stimulus fuels a spending surge
• Claims back on the climb
• Retail sales boom
• Another bitcoin milestone
• February Economic Review: A slower start to 2021, but better days are ahead
• Inflation up, driven by rising energy prices
• Jobless claims move lower again
• Core inflation remains tame
• Rising quits rate another sign of labor market confidence
• Negative rates not imminent, but possible longer-term
• Visibility picking up
• Tailwinds for the consumer continue to build
• CBO forecasts ongoing output gap
• Elevated ISM points to a post-pandemic boom
• Solid overall economic growth to close 2020
• January Monthly Dashboard: The economic soft patch will be over soon
• Fed stays the course
• Consumer confidence moves higher
• Ongoing rally fuels bubble fears
• A housing market surge for 2020
• Soft patch continues, but remains narrowly based
• Meet the new boss, same as the old boss
• Bank optimism growing
• January Economic Review: Rising infections lead to renewed restrictions and slower growth – but we expect improvement soon
• Retail spending slumps to end 2020
• Jobless claims jump
• Core inflation remains muted
• Near-term Risks Still Climbing
• Financials to kick off earnings season
• COVID/lockdowns hit the job market
• Lack of trust is a structural headwind
• No split government after all
• No soft patch in manufacturing
• Stimulus to Limit the Near-Term Downside
• December Monthly Dashboard: Virus resurgence threatens near-term growth even as vaccines/stimulus lift expectations
• COVID shutdowns hit consumer spending
• Unemployment claims rise again
• Fed adds a word of emphasis
• Stimulus compromise likely to leave out the public sector
• Near-term weakness, but a much stronger 2021
• COVID-19 Surge Weakens Incoming Data
• Jobless Claims Spike
• Correction May Come Sooner Rather than Later
• Job gains slow for November
• November Economic Review: Record economic growth. New infections present risk.
• The recovery shifts to a lower gear
• A surge in growth for the third quarter, but slower growth ahead continues
• Economic activity is sprinting ahead, but this is more of a marathon
• Momentum is slowing, but the recovery continues
• Economic activity is sprinting ahead, but this is more of a marathon
• That’s not a knife. That’s a knife!