January Economic Review: Accommodative monetary policy and less geopolitical risk suggest continued growth ahead – but Iran poses a new risk
Modest inflation and a still solid job market have created a benign environment for consumers. The misery index has fallen substantially since its 1980 highs and today it is well below average. But manufacturing remains in a funk and the Iranian crisis may offset other reductions in geopolitical risk. The year ahead presents reason for both optimism and caution. While the risks that pushed the Fed to cut benchmark interest rates three times in 2019 have yet to completely dissipate, they did downshift enough in the latter stages of the year to suggest that the expansion is still not close to an end. See Nationwide Economics’ take on what's happening and why this month in the economy.