Nationwide’s Chief of Investment Research and the Nationwide Economics team offer daily and weekly commentary and analysis of the equity and bond markets, including an overview of economic data being released, global market news, commodities and market performance by index returns. These timely insights can help you navigate markets and understand emerging trends.
For the third time since April, the S&P 500® Index approached the 200-day moving average but has yet to break through, which many technicians are watching closely in determining the likely path forward for equities. Volatility remains elevated, with the S&P 500 experiencing 3% directional moves in nine of the previous 13 weeks.
Households continued to spend into the fourth quarter as October retail sales beat expectations. Additionally, upward revisions to the prior two months suggest solid momentum for consumer activity despite rising costs and recession worries. Also, housing market data continued to cool as existing home sales and housing starts fell again.
Retail sales rose by 1.3 percent in October — its largest increase in eight months. What does this mean for the all-important holiday shopping in the weeks ahead? Will inflation keep shoppers away? Bryan Jordan, Nationwide's Deputy Chief Economist, shares his outlook on the holiday shopping season.
Energy companies are driving earnings growth with market tailwinds set to continue.
Real GDP growth in the third quarter wiped out the declines seen in the first half of the year, but there was little momentum from consumers heading into the fourth quarter. However, job gains remained solid in October and wages are still rising in a very tight labor market; factors that should prevent a sharp decline in consumer activity in the near term.
October’s consumer inflation report came in lower than forecasted. Equity markets responded positively to expectations of smaller Fed rate hikes ahead with the S&P 500 jumping by 5.5 percent last Thursday. But inflation remains highly elevated and one month of cooler prices does not make a trend. Elsewhere, survey results indicate that optimism is very low for small business owners and consumers alike.
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