Capital Market Impact

Get updates on recent capital market data and trends, including possible expectations for future outcomes.

A large, white building.
Capital Market Impact

The Market’s Megaphone Message for the Fed

Bulls are focused on healthy macro data, improving seasonality, and extremely pessimistic sentiment and positioning, while bears argue that Fed policy remains uncertain, recession indicators continue to flash, and consumer data is beginning to suggest a slowdown. Earnings revisions further complicate this debate, with fourth-quarter estimates being revised lower but 2024 estimates remaining resilient. Investors have softened their reactions to data in recent weeks, with significantly less volatility.