Economic Commentary Articles for Advisors

January Economic Review: Accommodative monetary policy and less geopolitical risk suggest continued growth ahead – but Iran poses a new risk

January 14, 2020

Modest inflation and a still solid job market have created a benign environment for consumers. The misery index has fallen substantially since its 1980 highs and today it is well below average. But manufacturing remains in a funk and the Iranian crisis may offset other reductions in geopolitical risk. The year ahead presents reason for both optimism and caution. While the risks that pushed the Fed to cut benchmark interest rates three times in 2019 have yet to completely dissipate, they did downshift enough in the latter stages of the year to suggest that the expansion is still not close to an end. See Nationwide Economics’ take on what's happening and why this month in the economy.

Economic commentary

Job gains set up further growth in 2020

January 13, 2020

Nonfarm payrolls added 145,000 jobs for December, modestly below consensus expectations. Even after slight downward revisions to prior months, the economy gained more than 550,000 jobs during the fourth quarter. This suggests that while job gains are easing a bit, as would be expected for an economic expansion in its 11th year, demand from employers for labor remains robust.

Economic commentary

What Financial Advisors Should Know About The SECURE Act

January 10, 2020

The SECURE Act is the broadest piece of retirement legislation in more than a decade. Effective January 1, this legislation creates new pathways to retirement security and, as such, will have wide reaching effects on retirement and estate planning for most Americans.

Economic commentary

Strong end to 2019 for equity markets

January 6, 2020

Financial markets ended a banner year positively with the S&P 500 stock index up by nearly 3.0 percent in December. Positive geopolitical news (including the phase one trade deal with China and reduced odds of a hard Brexit) and further expansion of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet to keep liquidity plentiful at the end of the year helped to boost equity markets. For the year, the S&P 500 index climbed by 28.8 percent — its strongest year since 2013. Aside from brief pullbacks in May and August, the market gains were consistent throughout the year — with a closing low on January 3 and a closing high on December 27. Even after accounting for the steep market decline in the fourth quarter of 2018, the S&P 500 index ended 2019 more than 10 percent higher than the peak level from 2018.

Economic commentary

How will the SECURE Act affect small business owners?

December 27, 2019

The SECURE Act, one of the largest overhauls of the U.S. retirement system in decades, will help drive better retirement outcomes for American workers.

Economic commentary

December Monthly Dashboard: Trend growth and (perhaps) reduced downside risks heading into 2020

December 27, 2019

Geopolitical news took a positive turn in December as the phase one trade deal between the U.S. and China reduces trade/tariff uncertainties for now and the Conservative party victory in the U.K. elections increases the odds of PM Johnson’s negotiated Brexit. While uncertainty remains (and is likely to climb again as the 2020 elections come closer), recent events have reduced downside risks for the near term economic outlook.

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