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Economic Commentary

We break down timely topics, centered on the major economic events around the world and their impacts to financial markets, in order to help you simplify client conversations around important investing decisions.

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Economic Commentary

Can the Fed slow inflation without a recession?

Economic growth was negative in the first quarter, but there appears to be less cause for alarm than the headline number suggests, with consumer and business investment spending solid. Rising mortgage rates and prices have begun to hurt home sales, but excess demand remains, and job growth is still strong thanks to record-high labor demand. Although the possibility of inflation persisting at a high level poses a threat, above-trend growth is still expected for the remainder of the year. 

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Economic Commentary

Overall CPI down, but core inflation is up

Growth in the overall consumer price index (CPI) slowed for April, mostly because of a (temporary?) decline in gasoline prices. But the core CPI, removing the volatile food and energy components and often viewed as a better measure of underlying inflation than the total, grew more rapidly for April. Meanwhile, April small businesses optimism remained subdued while consumer sentiment fell to the lowest level since 2011 for early May.  

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Economic Commentary

Nationwide Market Insights Podcast: Inflation continues. Is relief on the way?

The recent CPI report shows that inflation is still at record levels, but at a slightly lower level than the previous month's report. Nationwide's Deputy Chief Economist Bryan Jordan and Senior Economist Ben Ayers take a closer look at the CPI report. What sectors are being impacted the most? Where do we see some relief? How is this cycle different than previous inflations? And what's the outlook for the months ahead? 

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Economic Commentary

Employment continues to improve – Nationwide Market Insights Podcast

April's Employment Report revealed the continued strength of the job market, which is still recovering from the record job losses resulting from the pandemic. How long can this trend continue and what does this say about the overall economy? And what does this mean for the Fed, which again raised rates this week with the hopes to slow down inflation. Nationwide's Chief Economist David Berson and Senior Economist Ben Ayers take a closer look at the employment report and discuss potential impact of the Fed's recent actions. 

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Economic Commentary

Pandemic related distortions remain

Since the pandemic began, economic data have been distorted, and that continued last week. Gross domestic product (GDP) fell for the first time since the Covid recession in 2020, but underlying spending continued to advance at a solid pace and there is little reason to think that the drop in the overall measure suggests that the economy is slipping into a recession. Although the risk of a recession in coming years is rising, last week’s data still point to a solid outlook over the coming quarters.  

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