Economic Commentary Articles for Advisors

A blowout jobs report for November

December 9, 2019

Payroll gains far surpassed consensus expectations with an increase of 266,000 for November and upward revisions totaling 41,000 for the prior two months. Even accounting for the return of striking auto workers, which pushed up manufacturing by 54,000 jobs, November’s hiring was resoundingly strong. With a three-month average of 205,000 for job gains, concerns about possible weakness in the U.S. job market should be put to rest, at least for now.

Economic commentary

Consumer trends mostly positive heading into the holidays

December 2, 2019

The consumer is still on firm ground, led by a solid job market, low inflation (with gasoline prices trending downward), and record high household net worth as equity indices rise to all-time highs and house prices continue to move higher. As a result of these positive factors, wage income has been trending higher helping to boost growth in personal consumption expenditures.

Economic commentary

Housing activity continues to strengthen

November 25, 2019

Data from the housing sector continue to improve as the combination of low mortgage rates, a still-solid job market with the lowest unemployment rates in 50 years, and strong household formations boosts housing demand. Existing home sales rose by 1.9 percent for October to an annualized pace of 5.46 million. This extended the uptrend for activity since the start of the year with sales for October up by 4.6 percent relative to a year ago.

Economic commentary

November Monthly Dashboard: Slower growth, but perhaps fewer downside risks

November 22, 2019

Economic growth continued to decelerate in the third quarter, and we anticipate even slower growth in the fourth quarter as the trade war continues to weigh on the economy. But the potential for some easing of the trade disputes with China, the lagged impacts of easier monetary policy, and perhaps some stronger growth abroad could create some upside for growth in 2020.

Economic commentary

Consumer spending wobbles a bit

November 18, 2019

Retail sales rose by a modest 0.3 percent for October to extend the weaker shift in total spending seen in recent months. After posting monthly gains of at least 0.4 percent from March through August, total retail sales flattened out from August through October. The year-over-year growth rate in retail sales has slowed, too, but remains solid at 3.1 percent.

Economic commentary

November Economic Review: Growth slowing to trend, but Fed easing helps

November 12, 2019

Data from October and early November point to an economy that is stronger than expected by many analysts (albeit slowing), but in line with what members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) thought was enough to signal that further easing is not imminent. Although many risks linger, near-term fears of conditions worsening have been trimmed. See Nationwide Economics’ take on what's happening and why this month in the economy.

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