We break down timely topics, centered on the major economic events around the world and their impacts to financial markets, in order to help you simplify client conversations around important investing decisions.
Consumers are spending broadly on services this year - which is good news for the travel industry. Nationwide’s Chief Economist Kathy Bostjancic and Senior Economist Ben Ayers provide their outlook on consumer spending, especially in terms of travel and services. • What is the overall state of the consumer? • What's the outlook on summer travel? • How could a busy travel season delay the start of a potential recession?
April personal consumption expenditure data showed that inflation picked up as spending activity was very strong — both counter to the Fed’s goal of slower demand and price increases.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 253,000 in April, while the unemployment rate matched a 70-year low of 3.4 percent. The CPI rose 0.4 percent in April as gas prices popped and higher used car prices drove an upward reversal in core goods prices. Real GDP expanded at a meager 1.1 percent annualized pace in the first quarter, as a plunge in business inventories weakened growth.
Last week’s economic data showed a rebound in retail sales, suggesting that consumer activity remains strong amid solid job and wage gains. Also, housing market data, while weak in an absolute sense, has stabilized after last year’s sharp declines and ahead of what could be a bumpy second half of the year for the industry.
With investors adjusting their financial behaviors ahead of a potential recession, financial professionals can help clients feel more confident about their retirement plans and focus on their long-term goals.
Hiring and spending activity slowed further in March as consumers and businesses look for ways to cut expenses with borrowing costs climbing and the economic outlook dimming. But the strong momentum from the job market should deter an outright recession for some time with solid income growth supporting purchasing power. While the banking crisis has settled for now, banks are poised to further tighten lending standards and another rate hike from the Fed looks likely in early May. Most leading indicators suggest that a downturn is on the way, but pre-recession periods can linger, especially with the tight labor market unlikely to ease quickly.
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