About us

Economic Commentary

We break down timely topics, centered on the major economic events around the world and their impacts to financial markets, in order to help you simplify client conversations around important investing decisions.

illustration of a yellow globe on a green background
Economic Commentary

September Monthly Dashboard: Economic growth decelerates in the face of Delta and supply headwinds

After a strong first half of 2021, the winds have shifted a bit for the economy as the Delta variant and supply constraints have slowed activity. In-person activities have again taken the brunt of virus concerns with modestly reduced spending and hiring across the service sector. Input delays and higher costs continue to hamper manufacturing production and sales, too. This suggest a slowdown for the third quarter, but probably not a significant cooling, with real GDP still projected to expand at a solid 3.5-4.0 percent annualized rate. 

illustration of up arrow on a chart
Economic Commentary

Modestly better economic data

The economic data last week showed a bit of a turn toward a brighter outlook for the next few months, and hopefully beyond. To be sure, the Delta variant of Covid is still negatively impacting economic activity, but consumers and businesses are shifting how they move forward rather than putting things on hold as they did during previous Covid surges. This can be seen in regional Federal Reserve bank manufacturing surveys, retail sales, consumer sentiment, and easing inflationary pressures. 

illustration of chart going up in front of blue background
Economic Commentary

September Economic Review: Economic growth continues but slowed by supply constraints/Delta variant

Growth was mostly solid for August, but it continued to be held back by supply constraints throughout much of the economy as well as an inability by many firms to fill open positions. A rise in Covid infections due to the Delta variant has resulted in only modest changes from consumers, but production continues to be impacted and this is slowing the pace of third-quarter growth. Most forecasters (us included) have reduced their projections for annualized real GDP growth to around 3.5 percent — down from around 7.0 percent just a couple of months ago. See Nationwide Economics’ take on what's happening and why this month in the economy. 

illustration of a chart decline
Economic Commentary

Signs of Delta on both demand and supply

The Delta variant of Covid has been having a growing impact on the economy over the past few months. Last week’s economic data showed this with consumer confidence/sentiment, the ISM services survey, and the employment report. Supply constraints remain a severe bottleneck for the economy and given how much these problems have weighed on the housing market, they are likely to elongate the process of rebuilding for those impacted by Hurricane Ida.