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Weekly economic review & outlook
A blow out start to the next expansion

NOV. 02, 2020

You Need to Know

Week in review

Third quarter growth surge for the economy

Consumers and businesses led the way to the fastest quarter for economic growth on record. While the fourth quarter is likely to be slower, the recovery is expected to continue at a strong pace for awhile.

New home sales edge lower for September

While remaining at very strong levels, the surging housing market slowed a bit in September as new and pending home sales slipped modestly.

Week Ahead

Forecasts

Motor vehicle sales expected to slip to still-strong levels

After an unexpectedly large jump for September, we expect that light vehicle sales edged lower for October as fleet sales remain weak.

Strong payroll gains held back by fewer Census workers

We expect the rate of increase in nonfarm payrolls to move a bit lower but still be historically strong for October. The total will be held back by a drop in Census workers.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) surged at a record 33.1 percent annualized rate for the third quarter, by far the fastest period of economic growth since WWII. While this is an exceptionally fast start to the recovery, the level of real GDP remains 3.5 percent below the peak from the fourth quarter of 2019 due to the magnitude of the losses from the first half of the year.

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