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Weekly economic review & outlook Job gains slow for November

December 07, 2020

You Need to Know

Week in review

Weaker hiring for November, but unemployment falls again

Payroll gains were only 245,000 for November while the unemployment rate posted its smallest decrease since the start of the economic recovery.

Business surveys moderated slightly for November

The ISM manufacturing and services surveys dropped for November but still showed solid expansion for firms in both major sectors.

Week Ahead

Forecasts

Modest growth expected for the CPI

With rising COVID-19 cases likely weighing on consumer demand and the economy still operating well below potential, price growth is expected to be modest once again.

Consumer sentiment should get a boost from positive vaccine news

Despite surging infections and a slowing economy, we expect optimism to rise as a result of positive vaccine news.

Nonfarm payrolls grew by 245,000 for November, and while this is a solid figure in absolute terms it was well below consensus expectations and by far the weakest monthly pace of the recovery. The U-3 unemployment rate still dipped to 6.7 percent, although posting the smallest decline since readings started to fall from April’s recession peak. Moreover, the drop for November was caused by a contraction in the labor force rather than employment gains as the household survey reported fewer employed workers.

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