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Weekly economic review & outlook Solid, but modestly slowing, economic data

August 30, 2021

You Need to Know

Week in review

Home sales move a bit higher for July

Both new and existing home sales climbed for July even as rising prices and lack of supply continue to limit transactions.

Personal income and spending both up as inflation remains elevated (albeit slowing)

Although the PCE price index moderated a bit for July, it still rose solidly, while the Fed gave a further signal that asset tapering could occur later this year.

Week Ahead

Forecasts

ISMs both expected to drop

While still strong, we expect that growth slowed in both the manufacturing and services sectors in August.

Another big rise in job gains expected for August

Nonfarm payrolls are projected to rise strongly again for August, although the gain is expected to moderate a bit compared with the extremely rapid pace of the past couple of months.

Economic data from last week continued to show a modest deceleration from the rapid pace over the first half of 2021. The housing market took a breather from its downward trajectory in July while flash PMIs fell by more than expected. Durable goods shipments suggested a solid start to third quarter capital spending by businesses, but waning orders indicate there could be a lull moving forward.

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