Weekly economic review & outlook
Growth slows back to trend
JUL. 29, 2019
You Need to Know
Week in review
Real GDP growth slowed for the second quarter
The economy grew at an annualized pace of 2.1 percent, slower than the first quarter but still near the average for the entire expansion.
Existing home sales give way to new sales
Existing sales dipped for June as inventory issues continue to plague the market — shifting some demand to new builds.
Payroll growth slipping, but still solid
We project nonfarm payrolls to rise by 180,000 for July, continuing a slowing – but still solid – trend. The unemployment rate should slip to 3.6 percent.
Manufacturing continues to slow
The ISM manufacturing survey is expected to fall for a fourth consecutive month to 50.6 for July – still suggesting modest growth for the sector.
The economy slowed from the first quarter’s rapid pace with annualized real GDP growth of 2.1 percent for the second quarter. Consumer and government expenditures both grew strongly — offsetting a small decline in business fixed investment, a weakening for net exports, and a substantial slowdown in inventory accumulation. Year-over-year growth in real GDP also downshifted to 2.3 percent, the slowest pace in nine quarters but right about the average for this record-long expansion.