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Cycle Watch: December 2020 – Post election progress

December 15, 2020

Positive economic growth numbers since May suggest that the COVID-19 recession, which began in February, may be the most severe and the shortest recession in the post-WWII period. Given the sharp gaps between the current levels of economic activity and what it would be at full employment, the economy should be able to grow at an above-trend pace for a while. But this is a double-edged sword, as the gaps are so large – given the record decline in economic activity in the March-April period – that it will take several years to close them. While non-farm payrolls grew by a solid 245,000 for November, it was well below consensus expectations and by far the weakest monthly pace of the current recovery.

Read more in this month’s Cycle Watch.


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