Weekly economic review & outlook
The summer of recovery continued in July
You Need to Know
Week in review
Strong job gains extend into July as the recovery continues
Payroll growth over the past three months totaled 9.3 million, while the unemployment rate has fallen sharply from its record April peak.
Business surveys moved further into expansion for July
The ISM manufacturing and services indices climbed higher with improved production and new orders for most industries.
Week Ahead
Forecasts
CPI inflation expected to be moderate for July
After much volatility in recent months, the overall CPI for July is expected to rise moderately, while the core CPI should rise only a bit.
Retail sales should show slower but still strong growth again
Supported by a large increase in motor vehicle sales and continued improvement in employment numbers, retail sales should have another month of very strong growth.
Another strong month expected for industrial production
Industrial production (IP) experienced its best one-month growth in over 60 years in June, and July is expected to be another strong month.
The U.S. economy posted another very positive jobs figure for July with a 1.8 million increase in nonfarm payrolls as companies continued to rehire workers in the early stages of this recovery. Payroll gains over the past three months have totaled nearly 9.3 million, more than four times the jobs added during all of 2019. Unfortunately, this comes on the heels of the record-shattering plunge from April, meaning that the labor market is still almost 13 million workers shy of its February peak.
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