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Weekly economic review & outlook
The summer of recovery continued in July

AUG. 10, 2020

You Need to Know

Week in review

Strong job gains extend into July as the recovery continues

Payroll growth over the past three months totaled 9.3 million, while the unemployment rate has fallen sharply from its record April peak.

Business surveys moved further into expansion for July

The ISM manufacturing and services indices climbed higher with improved production and new orders for most industries.

Week Ahead

Forecasts

CPI inflation expected to be moderate for July

After much volatility in recent months, the overall CPI for July is expected to rise moderately, while the core CPI should rise only a bit.

Retail sales should show slower but still strong growth again

Supported by a large increase in motor vehicle sales and continued improvement in employment numbers, retail sales should have another month of very strong growth.

Another strong month expected for industrial production

Industrial production (IP) experienced its best one-month growth in over 60 years in June, and July is expected to be another strong month.

The U.S. economy posted another very positive jobs figure for July with a 1.8 million increase in nonfarm payrolls as companies continued to rehire workers in the early stages of this recovery. Payroll gains over the past three months have totaled nearly 9.3 million, more than four times the jobs added during all of 2019. Unfortunately, this comes on the heels of the record-shattering plunge from April, meaning that the labor market is still almost 13 million workers shy of its February peak.

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